George Friedman

Not to be confused with the French sociologist, Georges Friedmann.

George Friedman
Friedman in 2017
Born	Friedman György (1949-02-01) February 1, 1949 Budapest, Hungary
Nationality	American
Occupation	Political scientist
Known for	Founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures (since 2015) and Stratfor (1996–2015)
Spouse	Meredith Friedman (née LeBard)
Children	4
Academic background
Education	City College of New York (B.A. in political science)
Alma mater	Cornell University (Ph.D. in government)
Thesis	The Political Philosophy of the Frankfurt School (1977)
Academic work
Discipline	International relations Geopolitics
Institutions	Dickinson College

George Friedman (Hungarian: György Friedman, born February 1, 1949) is a Hungarian-born American futurologist, political scientist, and writer. He is a geopolitical author on international relations. He is the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures. Prior to founding Geopolitical Futures, he was chairman of the publishing company Stratfor.

Early life and education

Friedman was born in Budapest, Hungary, in 1949 to Jewish parents who survived the Holocaust. His family immigrated to the United States. Friedman describes his family's story as "a very classic story of refugees making a new life in America." He grew up in New York City. Friedman received a B.A. at the City College of New York, where he majored in political science, and a Ph.D. in government at Cornell University.

Career

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Friedman studied the potential for a Japan-U.S. conflict and co-authored with his wife The Coming War with Japan in 1991. The war he predicted did not occur.

Friedman spent nearly 20 years in academia, during which time he taught political science at Dickinson College.

In 1996, Friedman founded Stratfor, a private intelligence and forecasting company, and served as the company's CEO and Chief Intelligence Officer. Stratfor's head office is in Austin, Texas. He resigned from Stratfor in May 2015. That year, he founded Geopolitical Futures.

Friedman's reputation as a forecaster of geopolitical events led The New York Times magazine to comment, in a profile, "There is a temptation, when you are around George Friedman, to treat him like a Magic 8 Ball".

Decade Forecasts at Stratfor

While serving as chairman and chief intelligence officer at Stratfor, Friedman oversaw the publication of the company's long-term strategic forecasts, known as the "Decade Forecasts." Released approximately every five years, these reports attempted to project major global developments over the coming decade based on structural forces such as geography, demography, economics, and national interest.

The 2005–2015 forecast emphasized the continued dominance of the United States following the Cold War and projected that global terrorism would remain a manageable threat rather than an existential one. Stratfor took a strongly pessimistic view of China's future, arguing that its export-driven growth model was fundamentally unsustainable and predicting that regional disparities and rising social tensions would lead to inevitable internal instability. Friedman expressed high confidence that China would face severe political and economic crises, ultimately weakening central authority and forcing the regime into increased repression and fragmentation.

In the 2010–2020 forecast, Stratfor expanded its focus to predict the rising importance of regional powers such as Turkey, Poland, and Japan, foreseeing their emergence as significant players in their respective regions. Russia was forecast to attempt a limited resurgence in Eastern Europe, particularly through influence over former Soviet republics. Regarding China, Stratfor predicted that its rapid economic growth was unsustainable and warned that rising internal tensions, economic slowdowns, and increasing authoritarianism could trigger fragmentation of central authority by the late 2010s.

The 2015–2025 forecast reaffirmed many previous themes, projecting ongoing political instability within Europe, particularly related to the structural weaknesses of the European Union. It forecast that Russia would face demographic decline and economic stagnation despite short-term assertiveness. Stratfor also continued to predict major challenges for China, highlighting mounting internal debt, an aging population, widening regional inequalities, and increased political repression under Xi Jinping. Friedman anticipated a partial collapse of Chinese central authority within two decades, with regional interests asserting greater autonomy and China's global ambitions diminishing as a result.

The Next 100 Years

In his 2009 book The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, Friedman predicts that the United States will continue to dominate the international system throughout the 21st century. He attributes this to the U.S.'s military and economic power and its favorable geography with Atlantic and Pacific coasts.

He forecasts that neither Europe nor China will emerge as major geopolitical players by the end of the century. Regarding China, Friedman argues that its development model is unsustainable. He notes that China's prosperity is overly dependent on exports, especially to the United States and Europe, and that it remains a country where the majority still lives in poverty. He predicts that China will face internal instability, economic stagnation, and rising nationalism as political solutions substitute for economic remedies.

Friedman states, "China cannot survive a billion pissed off peasants," predicting that economic crisis will become visible within a few years, leading to a more repressive and nationalistic government.

He further argues that maintaining the absence of a global peer competitor is crucial for American strategic interests, similar to Britain’s balancing policy in the 19th century.

The Next Decade

In his 2011 book The Next Decade, Friedman argues that the United States must shift from reckless empire-building to careful management of its global power. He stresses that the next decade will be critical for the U.S. to mature from an expansionist superpower into a pragmatic balancer of world affairs.

Friedman advocates for a foreign policy centered on balancing regional powers against one another, rather than through direct military interventions. For example, the U.S. should rely on countries like Japan to counterbalance China in East Asia, rather than projecting force directly.

He predicts that China’s rapid growth is unsustainable and that internal economic, social, and regional divisions could cause political fragmentation. According to Friedman, extreme regional inequality between wealthy coastal provinces and impoverished inland areas, dependence on fragile export markets, and ethnic tensions could weaken Beijing's central authority over time. Although he does not forecast a complete breakup of China, he envisions a future where powerful regional interests challenge the central government, leading to a fragmented, unstable political system.

Friedman also forecasts that Russia will briefly reassert itself in Eastern Europe, but its demographic decline and economic weaknesses will prevent it from becoming a long-term challenger. He identifies Turkey, Poland, and Japan as emerging regional powers during the decade.

Domestically, Friedman argues that U.S. presidents in the 2010s will need to act more pragmatically, employing realpolitik strategies including balancing allies and adversaries without ideological entanglements. Successful leadership, he claims, will require managing America's global influence while maintaining domestic political stability.

The Storm Before the Calm

In his 2020 book The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond, Friedman outlines two recurring historical cycles in American history: an institutional cycle of about 80 years, and a socioeconomic cycle of about 50 years. He argues that both cycles are converging during the 2020s, creating a period of extreme political, economic, and social instability. Friedman predicts that this decade will be marked by widespread polarization, distrust in institutions, and social unrest in the United States. Despite the turbulence, Friedman maintains that the United States will emerge from this crisis strengthened. He forecasts that, by the early 2030s, new political and economic institutions will be created, allowing the U.S. to enter a renewed period of stability and global leadership. He attributes America's resilience to its decentralized society, technological innovation, and capacity for self-reinvention.

Friedman also devotes significant attention to China, arguing that it is entering a parallel period of internal crisis. He predicts that within the next 20 years, China will experience a partial collapse due to a combination of economic vulnerabilities, demographic decline, regional inequality, and political rigidity. Friedman contends that China's growth model, heavily reliant on exports and centralized investment, is unsustainable in the long term. As global demand fluctuates and internal debt rises, he foresees mounting social unrest, especially among China's rural and poorer populations.

Personal life

Friedman is married to Meredith Friedman (née LeBard), has four children, and lives in Austin, Texas. He and his wife have co-authored several publications, including The Coming War with Japan.

Bibliography

External videos
Booknotes interview with Friedman and Meredith LeBard on The Coming War with Japan, June 9, 1991, C-SPAN
Presentation by Friedman on America's Secret War, November 10, 2004, C-SPAN
Presentation by Friedman on The Next 100 Years, January 28, 2009, C-SPAN
Presentation by Friedman on The Next 100 Years, January 26, 2010, C-SPAN
After Words interview with Friedman on The Next Decade, February 12, 2011, C-SPAN
Presentation by Friedman on Flashpoints, January 28, 2015, C-SPAN

• The Political Philosophy of the Frankfurt School (1981). Cornell University Press, ISBN 0-8014-1279-X.
• The Coming War With Japan, with Meredith LeBard (1991). St Martins Press. Reprint edition, 1992, ISBN 0-312-07677-0.
• The Future of War: Power, Technology and American World Dominance in the Twenty-First Century, with Meredith Friedman (1996). Crown Publishers, 1st edition, ISBN 0-517-70403-X. St. Martin's Griffin, 1998, ISBN 0-312-18100-0.
• The Intelligence Edge: How to Profit in the Information Age with Meredith Friedman, Colin Chapman and John Baker (1997). Crown, 1st edition, ISBN 0-609-60075-3.
• America's Secret War: Inside the Hidden Worldwide Struggle Between the United States and Its Enemies (2004). Doubleday, 1st edition, ISBN 0-385-51245-7. Broadway, reprint edition (2005). ISBN 0-7679-1785-5.
• The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (2009). Doubleday, ISBN 0-385-51705-X.
• The Next Decade: What the World Will Look Like (2011). ISBN 0-385-53294-6.
• Flashpoints: The Emerging Crisis in Europe (2015). Doubleday, ISBN 0-385-53633-X.
• The Storm Before the Calm: America's Discord, the Coming Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond (2020). Doubleday, ISBN 9780385540490

External links

• George Friedman at Geopolitical Futures
• New York Times Magazine profile of George Friedman, 2003
• Appearances on C-SPAN
• Dr. George Friedman bio at The Sweeney Agency (speakers bureau)